Systems Thinking
April 23rd, 2025
Understanding Social Change Through Behavior Over Time Graphs
How to Track, Analyse, and Influence Long-Term Impact in Complex Social Systems
Abhishek Lonari, Service Designer and Researcher @Social Innovation Studio
What’s Inside:
Introduction: Behavior Over Time Graphs
Social change rarely happens overnight. It unfolds through complex patterns of growth, decline, stagnation, and revival that can span months or even years. This is where systems thinking tools, such as Behaviour Over Time Graphs (BOTGs), become invaluable for organisations working in the social sector.
For NGOs, development practitioners, and changemakers navigating dynamic and unpredictable environments, BOTGs offer a structured way to visualise, analyse, and influence social change. This comprehensive guide will equip you with practical insights to track progress, refine intervention strategies, and build long-term solutions that create sustainable impact. Let’s dig in!
What is a Behaviour Over Time Graph?
Simply put, a BOTG is a robust yet powerful tool that tracks how a particular variable changes over time. While causal loop diagrams map relationships between variables, BOTGs focus specifically on trends, revealing patterns of growth, decline, stagnation, and fluctuations that might otherwise go unnoticed.
Think of BOTGs as the social sector's equivalent of a patient's vital signs chart; they help you monitor the health of your programs, communities, and initiatives over extended periods.
Why Use BOTGs in Social Change Work?
BOTGs allow organisations to:
Detect long-term patterns that may not be visible in short-term data snapshots
Identify crisis points, stagnation, or improvement trends before they become critical
Assess whether interventions lead to sustainable impact
For social issues that unfold over years, such as changing community attitudes, building trust, or shifting cultural norms, BOTGs offer a structured way to analyse progress and refine strategies based on evidence rather than assumptions.
The Key Elements of a BOTG
Every BOTG consists of five key components:
Time (X-axis): The duration over which a variable is tracked; this could be days, months, or years, depending on your focus area.
Variable (Y-axis): A key metric being observed, such as community trust levels, participation rates, or funding stability.
Trend Lines: Visual representations of growth, decline, stagnation, or cyclical patterns over time.
Hopes: Future aspirations for how you want the variable to evolve your target trajectory.
Fears: Potential negative shifts that could push the variable in an unintended direction, helping you prepare for risks.
Applications of BOTGs
BOTGs can be strategically used to:
Analyse Past Trends: Learn from previous successes or failures to inform future decision-making
Predict Future Challenges: Identify declining participation or funding trends early, before they become crises
Assess Intervention Impact: Compare BOTGs before and after interventions to measure true effectiveness
Build Stakeholder Alignment: Create a shared understanding of problems and solutions across diverse teams
Real-World Applications: Three Critical NGO Challenges
Now that you understand the fundamentals, let's explore how BOTGs can address three common challenges faced by NGOs working in complex social environments.
1. Community Engagement: Tracking Trust & Participation
Building authentic community engagement is one of the most persistent challenges in social change work. Trust doesn't develop overnight, and participation levels can fluctuate dramatically based on external factors, past experiences, and the consistency of your approach.
An NGO launching a health initiative may initially struggle with low participation due to scepticism from community members. A BOTG tracking trust levels and participation might reveal:
Gradual growth as trust builds over time.
Sharp increases after successful campaigns.
Drops in participation due to inconsistent resources or past failures.
Hopes: Steady growth in trust leading to self-sustained initiatives.
Fears: Misinformation or political shifts reducing engagement.
Tips: By mapping these trends, NGOs can adjust outreach strategies to maintain engagement.
2. Funding Stability vs. Program Scalability
The perpetual challenge of financial sustainability affects nearly every NGO. Many organisations rely heavily on short-term grants, leading to funding fluctuations that directly impact program continuity and staff retention. This creates a vicious cycle where inconsistent programming undermines long-term impact.
A BOTG focused on funding patterns can help organisations:
Track funding sources and stability over time.
Compare funding trends with program scale to identify mismatches.
Predict financial risks and strategise for sustainability.
Hopes: Securing long-term funding ensures program stability.
Fears: Economic downturns or donor shifts causing funding cuts.
Tips: BOTGs help organisations plan proactively for financial sustainability, identifying the optimal times to pursue new funding streams and recognising early warning signs of financial instability before they reach crisis levels.
3. Shifting Stigma & Social Norms
Perhaps one of the most challenging aspects of social change work involves shifting deeply rooted cultural attitudes and social norms. Whether addressing mental health stigma, gender-based violence, or discriminatory practices, these changes happen slowly and often through seemingly contradictory patterns of progress and regression.
For issues like mental health awareness or child marriage prevention, BOTGs can effectively track:
Slow, nonlinear stigma reduction over the years.
The impact of media campaigns or policy changes.
External events cause spikes or declines in awareness.
Hopes: Growing acceptance leads to widespread policy changes.
Fears: Misinformation or backlash slows progress.
Tips: Tracking stigma trends helps NGOs refine messaging and sustain momentum.
Looking Ahead: Understanding the Deeper Currents
In the complex world of social change, success requires more than good intentions and hard work; it demands strategic thinking, pattern recognition, and adaptive planning. Behaviour Over Time Graphs provide a practical, accessible way to develop these capabilities within your organisation.
It helps us see patterns of change, but what if we want to understand why those changes happen? What drives a sudden drop in participation, or a slow but steady shift in public opinion? To answer those questions, we need to dig deeper into the underlying structures and beliefs that drive surface-level behaviours.
BOTGs reveal the waves on the surface, but understanding the currents underneath requires additional systems thinking tools. Read about the Iceberg Model, which helps unpack the underlying structures, beliefs, and mental models that drive the patterns we observe in our BOTGs.
Together, these tools create a comprehensive approach to understanding and influencing complex social systems.
Need help applying social and behaviour change frameworks to your programs? That's what we do at Social Innovation Studio! Get in touch with us.
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