Systems Thinking
June 19th, 2025
The Iceberg Model: A Systems Thinking Guide
How to Read Events & Trends Like a Systems Thinker and Create Lasting Change
Abhishek Lonari, Service Designer and Researcher @Social Innovation Studio
What’s Inside:
Introduction: The Iceberg Model
When we see a problem, our natural instinct is to fix it from what's visible.
A spike in school absenteeism? Provide more resources. Low savings among workers? Offer financial incentives. But what if the most powerful and lasting solutions lie beneath the surface, invisible to the naked eye?
That’s where the Iceberg model comes in!
The Iceberg Model is a foundational tool in systems thinking that helps us make sense of complex social problems. The idea is simple but powerful: much like an iceberg, where only a small portion is visible above water while the majority remains hidden beneath the surface, the problems we see in the world are often just the tip of a much deeper system of interactions, structures, and beliefs.
For changemakers working in NGOs, development organisations, or any field focused on social impact, understanding these hidden layers is essential for strategic action. This guide will take you through all four levels of the Iceberg Model, showing you how to move from reactive problem-solving to transformative systemic change.
Level 1: Events — What’s Immediately Visible
Events are the things we notice first. They’re the urgent issues, the headlines, the complaints from the field. Because they’re easy to see, they often become the focus of decisions and interventions.
But there’s a catch: reacting to events alone often leads to short-term fixes rather than long-term solutions.
Example:
An NGO working on menstrual health in rural schools notices a sudden spike in absenteeism among girls.
Event: Girls are missing school.
Reaction (if we stop here): Provide free sanitary pads.
While this might temporarily reduce absenteeism, it doesn’t explain why the spike happened in the first place, or whether this issue will return.
Key Insight: Events are important; they alert us to a problem. But if we only treat what’s visible, we risk implementing solutions that don’t stick.
Level 2: Patterns & Trends — What’s Been Happening Over Time?
At this level, we look for recurring trends or cycles. This is where Behaviour Over Time Graphs (BOTGs) become critical. By tracking a key symptom (like absenteeism, participation, trust, or donations) over time, we can begin to notice rhythms, fluctuations, or tipping points that aren’t obvious from a one-time event.
Example (continued):
The NGO creates a BOTG of attendance data and discovers:
Absenteeism increases during monsoon months.
Spikes also occur right after major community events.
Patterns differ by school location and grade level.
This suggests the issue isn’t just about access to hygiene products; it may involve infrastructure, household responsibilities, or seasonal health patterns.
Key Insight: By recognising patterns, NGOs can design proactive strategies, like aligning interventions with local calendars, improving sanitation infrastructure, or addressing social expectations around caregiving during specific months.
From Awareness to Insight
Events catch our attention, but patterns hold the clues.
By noticing not just what is happening but when and how often, we move from reacting to responding with intention. Systems thinking invites us to zoom out and look across time, building an understanding of the deeper rhythms behind the issues we see.
Whether you're working on education, livelihoods, or climate action, these first two levels of the Iceberg Model: Events and Patterns help you identify early warning signs, spot leverage points, and design smarter, more responsive strategies. But what's causing these patterns in the first place?
Level 3: Underlying Structures – What Shapes the System?
Structures are the rules, roles, processes, and relationships that create the patterns we see. When we map these interactions using tools like Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs), we begin to see feedback loops that reinforce problems or offer points for change.
Example:
In an education program, a CLD reveals that:
Overworked teachers → reduce classroom quality
Poor learning outcomes → increase pressure on teachers
Resulting burnout → further worsens teaching quality
This feedback loop explains why academic outcomes don’t improve despite surface-level efforts like supplying more books or tech.
Why It Matters: Changing structures, like adjusting class sizes, workload distribution, or teacher support, can shift the entire system.
Level 4: Mental Models – What Beliefs Drive Behaviour?
Mental models are the deeply held beliefs, assumptions, and values that shape behaviour and decision-making. They’re often invisible, but they explain why structures persist and patterns repeat.
Example:
In the same education program:
Teachers believe “poor kids just don’t value education.”
Students believe “school won’t help me get a job anyway.”
These beliefs affect motivation, effort, and engagement. Addressing them—through mentorship, storytelling, or community dialogue—can reshape how people see their role in the system.
Why It Matters: Without shifting mental models, even the best structural reforms may fail. But when beliefs change, systems can transform.
Case Example: Low Savings Among Factory Workers
Let’s apply all four levels of the Iceberg Model to a common issue faced by NGOs working on financial inclusion:
The Challenge: Low Savings Among Factory Workers
Level 1 - Event: Most workers don't have emergency savings.
Level 2 - Pattern: BOTGs show dips before festivals and after health crises, indicating a recurring strain on finances.
Level 3 - Structure: A CLD shows that:
High informal borrowing
Lack of formal savings options
Irregular pay cycles All reinforce low savings behavior.
Level 4 - Mental Models: Workers believe:
"Saving small amounts won't help"
"Banks are not for people like us"
The Solution: Working at Every Level
By working at each level, offering mobile savings tools, improving financial literacy, and reshaping beliefs around money, an NGO can design a strategy that works with the system, not against it. This comprehensive approach addresses not just the symptoms but the root causes that keep the problem in place.
The Power of Seeing Deeply
The Iceberg Model reminds us that lasting change doesn’t happen by reacting to surface events; it happens when we uncover and shift the deeper structures and beliefs that hold systems in place. The real levers for transformation are often hidden, but they’re always within reach if we know where to look.
By pairing tools like Behaviour Over Time Graphs and Causal Loop Diagrams with a deep dive into underlying structures and mental models, we can design smarter, more sustainable interventions.
So, keep digging deeper. The most powerful question any changemaker can ask isn't "What happened?" but rather "What's the pattern beneath the problem I'm seeing?" Because real change, the kind that lasts, starts below the surface.
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